eBusiness Weekly
Economy Uncensored with Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
In the midst of conflicting reports and predictions about Zimbabwe’s grain supply, authorities have stepped forward to address the nation’s concerns.
With assurances from the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Rural Development, and insights from the Ministry of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services, a picture emerges of the country’s current grain situation.
However, amidst claims of sufficiency, statistical data and import trends reveal a different story, raising questions about the nation’s ability to meet its grain demands.
So, this week we delve deeper into these contrasting narratives to understand the reality behind Zimbabwe’s grain supply.
What authorities are saying
According to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Rural Development the country has enough grains needed till the next harvest.
“Cabinet wishes to assure the nation that there will be enough grain before the commencement of the next maize/traditional grains intake in April 2024,” the Ministry of Information and Publicity told the country on February 6, 2023.
“Regarding the summer crops marketing update, the nation is informed that the total marketed crops were 526 082 tonnes for the 2022/2023 summer crops, out of which the GMB purchased 210 579 tonnes. The GMB intake constituted 39 percent market share for all the marketed crops.”
According to the agriculture ministry, a cumulative 1 710 tonnes of maize at an average price of US$310 per tonne have been marketed through the Zimbabwe Mercantile Exchange (ZMX) since inception and it accounts for about 18 percent of monthly buys.
National monthly and yearly consumption
On the consumption front, Zimbabwe requires 2,2 million tonnes of grains annually for both human and livestock consumption. The country needs 1,8 million tonnes for food and 400 000 for stock feed.
This translates to 6 027 tonnes daily, with 4 931 tonnes going towards human consumption. The monthly human consumption requirement is 150 000 tonnes.
Using such metrics, the country currently cannot meet the demand due to two poor harvest years which means an increase in imports to cover for yet another poor season of rains.
So, looking at the past four seasons, the country has been able to feed both humans and livestock only once, which means we have been importing maize during all these seasons, but it is a matter of quantity.
Story told by statistics
Delving into the statistics, Zimbabwe has been having mixed seasons since the 2019/20 cropping season with two consecutive sub-par seasons in 2022 and 2023.
In the 2019/20 season, Zimbabwe produced 908 000 tonnes of maize in what was the beginning of a recovery. The country saw good rains and maize production jumped 199,23 percent as it produced a multi-year record of 2,72 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season.
From then, the following season of 2021/22, the country produced 1,45 million tonnes of maize which was a 46,52 percent drop in production.
During the past season, rains also did not perform as usual and the country produced 1,5 million tonnes of maize which was a 3,23 percent recovery.
Imports have been a part of our daily routine, but with recent reports by the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe, people have sounded like we are doing something we have not been doing.
In the past four seasons, the country has imported an average of 188 750 tonnes per year of white maize from South Africa and in the 2022/23 marketing season, we accounted for 29 percent of South Africa’s white maize exports.
During the 2019/20 marketing season, Zimbabwe imported 371,000 tonnes of maize from South Africa, and the following marketing season of 2020/21 the imports fell to 4,616 tonnes. In the 2022/23 marketing season, the country bought 114,296 tonnes from our neighbour.
In the ongoing 2023/24 marketing season, the country has bought 264 598 tonnes from South Africa, according to data released in the week ending February 22, 2023.
Prediction says, this will be one of our biggest importing seasons as the country prioritises non-GMOs in the country’s reserves for human consumption and imports for animal feed.
Despite official reassurances, the statistics paint a sobering picture of Zimbabwe’s grain production and import trends.
With consecutive sub-par seasons and increased reliance on imports, the country faces significant challenges in meeting its grain demands.
As the nation grapples with the realities of fluctuating harvests and import dependencies, it becomes imperative for authorities to address underlying issues and implement sustainable strategies to ensure food security for both humans and livestock.
Hence, what is happening is not new, it is just in the spotlight because we are facing one of the worst seasons in a decade.
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro is a resident economist with the Business Weekly and writes this in his own capacity. @willoe_tee on twitter, [email protected] on email and Tapiwanashe Willoe Mangwiro on LinkedIn
