eBusiness Weekly
With the truncated Rugby Championship starting this weekend, we asked Two Cents Rugby to predict the final standings of the 2023 edition.
Fourth — Argentina
Picking Argentina to come last is hardly an earth-shattering idea. Almost every year since the Tri-Nations became the Rugby Championship, the Pumas have finished with the wooden spoon.
That’s not to say there hasn’t been progress. For the first couple of years Argentina went winless, but contrast that to 2022 where they picked up a couple of victories, including their first ever away success over the All Blacks.
With Michael Cheika selecting a massive 48-man squad (more players than he used in all of 2022), we may see a bit of pre-World Cup experimentation.
Ultimately though, the fixtures list isn’t kind to the Pumas. Their first game is at home to the All Blacks who, without some of their Crusaders, might be vulnerable. Follow that up with away trips to Australia and South Africa, it’s an uphill battle for Los Pumas.
Third — Australia
New coach, new squad, co-captains, it’s a new-look Wallabies squad for 2023 under Eddie Jones.
It’s fair to assume there will be a bit of settling in for Australia as they get to playing the way Jones wants them to play. With England, Jones was able to hit the ground running, but it took longer in his previous stints with Japan and Australia to get things right.
Also, with a number of uncapped players in the squad, they’ll need to get an opportunity sooner rather than later to be in with a chance for the World Cup, so it’s possible the line-ups we see are lacking in experience.
Fixtures wise, the Wallabies will be happy to have two of their three games at home. However, their first match is away in Pretoria, a ground where they’ve never won. Then it’s home fixtures against Argentina and New Zealand.
Australia have lost their last three games in Melbourne (although not at the MCG) and you can expect a lot of expat New Zealand fans trying to make it feel like an All Blacks home game.
Second — New Zealand
There’s something about New Zealand’s Rugby Championship results in Rugby World Cup years, they don’t tend to win. The 2007 Tri-Nations was the last time the All Blacks managed to lift the southern hemisphere trophy during a Rugby World Cup year. Add to that the fact that they’ve only got one home game and it feels like one year where history could repeat itself.
The campaign starts away in Argentina with the All Blacks set to be missing a few Crusaders players.
Then they’re at home to South Africa at Mt Smart Stadium.
The All Blacks have put 100 points on Tonga there in the past, but it’s not a ground with much Test familiarity and less of a fortress feeling.
New Zealand’s final game, against Australia, will have given Jones two matches to get his team right, and you feel like the All Blacks will be the one he’s targeting most of all.
Combine all that with the need for Ian Foster to have a look at some of the uncapped guys, it’s not plain sailing for the men in black.
First — South Africa
They did it in 2019 for the last abridged Rugby Championship, and you could see them doing it again in 2023.
Unlike the other three squads, the Springboks have gotten their ducks in a row earlier and don’t have any uncapped players. They have added Jean Kleyn to the mix and players like Manie Libbok could certainly use more international experience, but overall, it’s the most stable looking of the four squads.
The campaign kicks off with Australia at home. With Jones still getting his squad in order, you’d back the Boks for a win in Pretoria. Follow that with an away trip to New Zealand, where Rassie Erasmus has had a knack of getting results, including his tactic of splitting the squad and sending players early to acclimatise.
A win in 2018 and a draw in 2019 were the most recent away games for the Springboks in New Zealand. Finally, it’s back in Johannesburg where they have never lost to Argentina, which means there’s a lot to like about South Africa’s chances this year. — planetrugby
