Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
As 2025 dawns, the global and local economies face a mix of opportunities and challenges, from agricultural struggles to evolving mining trends and energy innovations, here is what local experts foresee for the year ahead.
Economist Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi notes that the projected global growth of 5 percent will be difficult to achieve, particularly for developing economies. Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector, a key contributor to GDP, is expected to underperform due to late rains that will likely slash expected growth rates. But if the rains prolong, the outcome might be affirmative.
However, there is optimism in the tourism sector.
“As more countries emerge from economic stagnation, international travel is set to rebound, benefiting nations like Zimbabwe with untapped tourism potential,” Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi explained.
As for the banking sector, interest rates in Zimbabwe are expected to remain elevated, despite easing inflation. Raymond Madziva, a prominent banker, anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe will maintain its cautious stance.
“The central bank is unlikely to reduce rates significantly, given concerns over currency stability and the need to fund ongoing infrastructure projects,” he said.
Currency depreciation remains a concern for 2025, particularly in the second quarter, as the Government continues heavy spending on infrastructure. Madziva cautioned that without robust foreign exchange inflows, the ZiG could face renewed pressures.
In the mining sector of 2025, gold is expected to continue to shine as a safe-haven asset, buoyed by global uncertainties. Eng Michael Wushe, a mining engineer, highlighted that gold prices reached a peak of US$2 778 an ounce in October 2024, before moderating slightly.
Mining analyst, Allan Kumbeni, added that sustained demand will keep gold prices elevated, with an average forecast of US$2 552 an ounce for 2025.
“Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and between the US and China, are driving investors to gold. This trend is unlikely to abate in the near term,” Kumbeni remarked.
However, risks remain, a stronger US dollar or delays in central bank rate cuts could weaken demand, while subdued consumer spending in India and China may dampen physical gold purchases.
Lithium markets face a mixed outlook, while electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to drive long-term demand and 2025 is expected to be a year of adjustments.
“Short-term demand has softened due to a cyclical slowdown in EV sales and reduced subsidies in China,” said Kumbeni. Meanwhile, supply expansions in Australia and Latin America have led to an inventory surplus, pushing spodumene prices down to a forecast average of US$878 a tonne in 2025.
Emerging African producers, including Zimbabwe, are starting to contribute to global supply and are expected to be major players.
However, resource nationalism in Latin America and delays in new mining projects could present upside risks for prices, which are expected to rebound by 2026.
The global energy sector is undergoing a transformation, with renewable energy gaining traction.
Dr Tendai Moyo, an energy consultant, predicts that Zimbabwe will see incremental growth in solar and wind projects in 2025.
“While progress has been slow, the Government’s recent policy incentives for renewable energy investment are starting to yield results,” Dr Moyo said.
However, Zimbabwe’s energy sector still grapples with challenges, including aging infrastructure and limited financing. The aging infrastructure according to Zesa chairman, Dr Sydney Gata, is still continuing operations because of the local engineers’ ingenuity.
Dr Moyo emphasised the need for private sector involvement to bridge the energy gap.
Industrial growth in Zimbabwe will depend on resolving structural inefficiencies, according to analysts. Dr Nxaba Ndiweni, an industrialist, highlighted that while some sectors are poised for recovery and even growth, others face significant headwinds.
“Manufacturing remains constrained by high production costs, unreliable electricity supply and limited access to foreign exchange,” Dr Ndiweni explained. However, the Government’s push for value addition in mining and agriculture could provide a much-needed boost to industrial output.
Dr Ndiweni also noted that regional trade agreements, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), present opportunities for Zimbabwean businesses to expand their markets.
“The key will be improving competitiveness and reducing bureaucratic hurdles,” he added.
As 2025 unfolds, Zimbabwe and the global economy will navigate a complex landscape.
From gold’s resilience to lithium’s recalibration and industrial challenges, the year promises both opportunities and risks. Experts agree that strategic planning, policy adjustments and leveraging global trends will be crucial for sustained growth.
For Zimbabwe, the road ahead requires balancing short-term challenges with long-term potential — a task that demands bold action and innovative solutions.
