UNWTO reports rise in international tourist arrivals

28 Jan, 2022 - 00:01 0 Views
UNWTO reports rise in  international tourist arrivals International arrivals in December were 65 percent below 2019 levels

eBusiness Weekly

Global tourism experienced a 4 percent upturn in 2021, compared to 2020 (415 million versus 400 million), according to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).

However, preliminary estimates by UNWTO shows that international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) were still 72 percent below the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

This follows on from 2020, the worst year on record for tourism, when international arrivals decreased by 73 percent.

Meanwhile the first 2022 issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer indicates that rising rates of vaccination, combined with easing of travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, have all helped release pent up demand.

International tourism rebounded moderately during the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62 percent in both the third and fourth quarters compared to  pre-pandemic levels.

According to limited data, international arrivals in December were 65 percent below 2019 levels.

However, the full impact of the Omicron variant and surge in Covid-19 cases is yet to be seen.

Slow and uneven recovery

The pace of recovery remains slow and uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveller confidence. Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results in 2021 compared to 2020 (+19 percent and +17 percent respectively), but still both 63 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

By subregion, the Caribbean saw the best performance (+63 percent above 2020, though 37 percent below 2019), with some destinations coming close to, or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Southern Mediterranean Europe (+57 percent) and Central America (+54 percent) also enjoyed a significant rebound but remain 54 percent and 56 percent down on 2019 levels respectively. North America (+17 percent) and Central Eastern Europe (+18 percent) also climbed above 2020 levels.

Meanwhile, Africa saw a 12 percent increase in arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020, though this is still 74 percent below 2019. In the Middle East arrivals declined 24 percent compared to 2020 and 79 percent over 2019. In Asia and the Pacific arrivals were still 65 percent below 2020 levels and 94 percent when compared to pre-pandemic values as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.  

Increased tourism spending

The economic contribution of tourism in 2021 (measured in tourism direct Gross Domestic Product) is estimated at US$1,9 trillion, above the US$1,6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic value of US$3,5 trillion. Export revenues from international tourism could exceed US$700 billion in 2021, a small improvement over 2020 due to higher spending per trip, but less than half the US$1,7 trillion recorded in 2019.

Average receipts per arrival are estimated to reach US$1,500 in 2021, up from US$1 300 in 2020. This is due to large pent-up savings and longer lengths of stay, as well as higher transport and accommodation prices. France and Belgium reported comparatively smaller declines in tourism expenditure with -37 percent and -28 percent, respectively over 2019. Saudi Arabia (-27 percent) and Qatar (-2 percent) also posted somewhat better results in 2021.

Outlook for 2022

According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts, most tourism professionals (61 percent) see better prospects for 2022. While 58 percent expect a rebound in 2022, mostly during the third quarter, 42 percent point to a potential rebound only in 2023. A majority of experts (64 percent) now expect international arrivals to return to 2019 levels only in 2024 or later, up from 45 percent in the September survey.

The UNWTO Confidence Index shows a slight decline in January-April 2022. A rapid and more widespread vaccination roll-out, followed by a major lifting of travel restrictions, and more co-ordination and clearer information on travel protocols, are the main factors identified by experts for the effective recovery of international tourism. 

UNWTO scenarios indicate that international tourist arrivals could grow by 30 percent to 78 percent in 2022 compared to 2021. However, this would still be 50 percent to 63 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

The recent rise in Covid-19 cases and the Omicron variant are set to disrupt the recovery and affect confidence through early 2022 as some countries reintroduce travel bans and restrictions for certain markets. At the same time, the vaccination roll-out remains uneven and many destinations still have their borders completely closed, mostly in Asia and the Pacific. 

A challenging economic environment could put additional pressure on the effective recovery of international tourism, with the surge in oil prices, increase in inflation, potential rise in interest rates, high debt volumes and the continued disruption in supply chains. 

However, the ongoing tourism recovery in many markets, mostly in Europe and the Americas, coupled with the widespread vaccination roll-out and a major co-ordinated lifting of travel restrictions, could help to restore consumer confidence and accelerate the recovery of international tourism in 2022.  

While international tourism bounces back, domestic tourism continues to drive recovery of the sector in an increasing number of destinations, particularly those with large domestic markets. According to experts, domestic tourism and travel close to home, as well as open-air activities, nature-based products and rural tourism are among the major travel trends that will continue shaping tourism in 2022. — UNWTO (Online).

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