eBusiness Weekly
Dr Keen Mhlanga
Inflation is soaring, interest rates are increasing, and bond and stock prices are falling. Predictions of a future recession are becoming more common. Clearly, this is a terrible time for everyone who has saved or invested money, or who is considering doing so, several folks have concerns.
Higher interest rates aid to the fight against inflation by increasing the cost of borrowing, pushing individuals and businesses to borrow less and spend less. In principle, this should result in decreased demand and slower price increases, but it also implies less economic activity.
The European Central Bank issued an unusually significant rate hike earlier this month, its first in 11 years. Since December, the Bank of England has been hiking interest rates, and scores of other nations have followed suit.
The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 0.75 percent to help counter inflation and limit price rise. The Fed hiked interest rates by 0.75 percent for the second time in a row, and it is the fourth hike of the year. The Fed expects that by raising interest rates, it would slow the economy and cause prices to fall.
The current inflationary environment has not resulted in all items in the global economy being more costly at the same rate. Food, gas, automobiles, and housing have all experienced large price increases, significantly upping the overall inflation rate. To control these changes, aggregate demand would have to fall to uncomfortable levels for typical people, thereby making individuals too poor to buy products and therefore eliminating bottlenecks. Rate increases are not only ineffective in lowering these vital prices, but they also risk triggering a recession that will put millions out of work.
We are living in an era of overlapping catastrophes, with pandemics, climate change, and strong geopolitical conflicts all occurring at the same time. We must be prepared for potential disruptions in the worldwide flow of products. Oil prices in the United States are currently down, but the global energy crisis is far from finished. Europe is bracing for unprecedented gas shortages in the coming months. This has serious implications not only for Atlantic consumers, but also for global fossil fuel costs and crucial supply networks such as Germany’s chemical and equipment sectors. It is not sustainable to bring the entire economy down anytime supply networks fail under the weight of major events.
The vast majority of central banks are tightening monetary policy. Thinking ahead, the main issue is how soon this monetary tightening can bring inflation back to sustainable levels. Meanwhile, as global growth slows and price increases strain people throughout the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in July that the global economy might be on the verge of a recession.
Already, some companies in the technology and housing sectors, which have had significant growth in recent years due to cheap borrowing rates, have announced job layoffs or plans to curtail recruiting, citing the market change. With inflation so high, central banks have no option but to raise interest rates.
Consequently, the worldwide supply chain for a wide range of items has been severely hampered during the epidemic, owing in part to tight Covid-19 rules in China, where many mass-produced commodities are obtained.
The protracted conflict in Ukraine has harmed the world food supply, as well as the crude oil and natural gas supplies on which Europe is heavily reliant.
Rising interest rates have an impact on both consumers and businesses. As a result, the economy is expected to witness a drop in consumption and investment.
Interest payments on government debt rise, the UK presently pays more than £30 billion each year on its national debt. Interest payments to the government become more expensive as interest rates rise. This may result in greater taxes in the future and reduced confidence. Interest rates have an impact on consumer and reduce business confidence. Interest rate increases discourage investment by making companies and consumers less eager to make risky investments and purchases.
Conventional policies may be ineffective during a situation of hyperinflation. Future inflation expectations may be difficult to alter. When people lose faith in a currency, it may be essential to adopt a new one.
A country may join a fixed exchange rate system in order to keep inflation low. The idea is that if a currency’s value is fixed (or semi-fixed), it generates a discipline to keep inflation low. If inflation continues to climb, the currency will become uncompetitive and will begin to decline. The United Kingdom joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in the late 1980s, in part to control inflation. However, targeting inflation via the currency rate is difficult, and the UK was obliged to exit the ERM in 1992.
Inflation expectations are a fundamental predictor of inflation throughout time. Firms would raise pricing and workers will demand greater salaries if consumers predict inflation next year. This anticipation usually leads to increased inflation. The Central Bank and government would have an easier task if they can effectively lower expectations by making precautions have been taken to keep inflation under control.
Rising interest rates will disproportionately burden customers with large mortgages, typically first-time purchasers in their 20s and 30s. Lowering inflation may need raising interest rates to a level that creates genuine difficulty for people with substantial mortgages. Those who have savings, on the other hand, may be better off. As a result, monetary policy becomes less effective as a macroeconomic tool.
It is vital to remember that the real interest rate is the most relevant. The real interest rate is the difference between nominal interest rates and inflation. Assume interest rates rise from 5 percent to 6 percent while inflation rises from 2 percent to 5,5 percent. This reflects a reduction in real interest rates from 3 percent (5-2) to 0,5 percent (6-5,5). In this case, the rise in nominal interest rates implies expansionary monetary policy.
Financial conditions are tightening as advanced nations boost interest rates to combat inflation, particularly for their emerging-market peers. Countries must employ macro prudential measures responsibly to protect financial stability. In a crisis scenario, if flexible exchange rates are insufficient to absorb external shocks, authorities must be prepared to adopt foreign exchange interventions or capital flow control measures.
Such difficulties arise at a time when many nations lack budgetary headroom, with 60 percent of low-income countries in or at high danger of financial crisis, up from around 20 percent a decade earlier. Higher borrowing costs, less credit flows, a higher dollar, and poorer GDP will exacerbate the situation. Targeted price stability and constraints on business profits would neither solve Russia’s conflict or the US economy’s fiscal rectitude. However, they will defend workers and economic prosperity by giving the government more powers to combat inflation, regulate corporate dominance, and provide the groundwork for much-needed investments.
Dr Keen Mhlanga is a global financial expect, key note speaker, investment advisor with high skills in digital banking, corporate and development finance. A dedicated, hardworking financial genius and business magnate. He is the executive chairman of FinKing Financial Advisory. Send your feedback to [email protected], contact him on 0777597526.
